After the $19 billion liquidation event, Bitcoin spot trading volume skyrocketed to $300 billion. Is the market迎来转折点?

The spot trading volume of Bitcoin surged to over $300 billion in October, marking the second highest monthly total of the year. This spike occurred after a big dump earlier in the month triggered by U.S. President Trump’s threats of tariffs against China, which resulted in margin traders suffering losses exceeding $19 billion. Analysts believe that the increase in spot trading volume indicates a shift in market sentiment from short-term speculation to genuine accumulation, laying a more solid foundation for Bitcoin's future rise, although there are still fragile signs of recovery in the short term.

The Painful Lesson of Margin Trading: $19 Billion Liquidation Storm

At the beginning of October, the remarks made by U.S. President Trump threatening to impose new tariffs triggered a flash crash in the crypto market, costing highly leveraged traders an expensive lesson.

• Price big dump: Bitcoin price fell from 122,000 USD to around 101,000 USD on some exchanges within a few hours.
• The liquidation scale is astonishing: CoinGlass data shows that over 1.6 million traders' positions were forcibly liquidated, with long position traders suffering the heaviest losses, totaling nearly $17 billion. It was reported that one trader lost $19 million on Hyperliquid.
• Market Warning: This incident wiped out months of gains, reminding the market once again how quickly high-leverage bets can completely collapse. At the end of this event, the Bitcoin price rebounded to around 110,800 USD, and consolidated in the range of 108,000 USD to 116,000 USD, indicating that the market is stabilizing after the chaos at the beginning of the month.

Strong Rise in Bitcoin Spot Trading: Transition from Speculation to Accumulation

In October, the Spot trading volume of Bitcoin reached an astonishing 300 billion USD, with mainstream CEX accounting for about 174 billion USD of the share, and trading activities covering retail traders and institutional investors.

CryptoQuant analysts indicate that the rise in spot trading volume suggests that market trends are shifting towards “real accumulation”, rather than short-term speculation. Investors seem to be more focused on directly holding Bitcoin, rather than betting on short-term price fluctuations through margin trading.

• Market Fundamentals Strengthened: This shift could be a significant turning point. When the market is driven by real buying and selling demand rather than margin contracts, price fluctuations tend to decrease, establishing a more solid foundation for growth.
• Institutional Accumulation Trend: An increasing number of investors, whether retail or institutional, are choosing to hold Bitcoin rather than using it for short-term volatility trading, which is a positive signal for long-term investment in Bitcoin.

Analyst Warning: Recovery is Fragile, Excessive Optimism Must be Cautioned

Despite the renewed interest in the spot market, not everyone believes that the worst period is over.

• Retail Risk: On-chain data company Santiment points out that retail traders are becoming overly optimistic, with many “buying the dip too early,” which often leads to more losses when the market turns again.
• Technical Sell Signal: Market analyst Ali Martinez has also issued a warning signal, pointing out that the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a potential sell signal again. Furthermore, even after the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points, concerns about global liquidity remain strong, and this rate cut has led to an additional $700 million in liquidations in the crypto market.

Long-term accumulation signs: Exchange BTC balance continues to flow out

Exchange data shows that the market is shifting towards direct ownership, further supporting the view of “accumulation.”

• Exchange Balance Decline: In October, the total amount of BTC held by exchanges decreased from 2.65 million coins to 2.38 million coins. This indicates that more traders are moving their coins to personal cold wallets instead of keeping them on the platform for short-term trading.
• Divergence in Trading Activity: While some whales continue to transfer large amounts of capital to exchanges for selling, many other investors are still continuously buying. Mainstream CEX data shows that sell orders slightly outnumber buy orders, while another mainstream CEX indicates stronger buying activity.
• Steady Accumulation Strategy: Although capital flows are complex, the overall balance tends to accumulate. Traders are increasingly using Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP) orders to slowly build positions and avoid instant price spikes.

Conclusion

The massive liquidation storm in October highlighted the inherent risks of high Margin Trading and prompted a significant amount of funds to return to the more stable Bitcoin Spot market. The substantial increase in spot trading volume and the continued decline in exchange BTC balances indicate that the market is transitioning from speculation-driven to value accumulation-driven, which is crucial for the long-term healthy development of Bitcoin. However, amidst ongoing macro uncertainty and warning signals from technical indicators, investors should remain cautious and avoid blindly chasing highs or prematurely bottoming out.