The interest rate has been lowered, and the market has also fallen. Seeing everyone looking confused, I might as well write something.
Under the premise that the underlying logic is already clear, it is also a normal anticipation for the market to fall. Everything that needs to be written has been written in the previous updates. If you can see it, if you have looked at it carefully, if you have thought about it seriously, or if you now review the conversations in the comment section, you will find that the anticipation and the actual market situation are actually not much different.
In the early morning, I lay in bed with my phone, watching Lao Bao's speech the whole time. This kind of dual-faced rhetoric of one dove and one eagle becomes unsurprising once you get used to it; it's the same old routine. Don't forget that he is also just a worker, after all, he is not alone; he is a pawn in the struggle between one group and another.
The cryptocurrency market has indeed been tough during this period, but this kind of oscillation and repair trend can also be anticipated. We seem to have forgotten the damage caused by 1011 to this circle; it not only took away many people from this market but also made outside funds hesitant. We also seem to have forgotten that we are still in a government shutdown in the beautiful country, and the people across the sea are still living in "deep water and fire." For a risk investment market that is extremely dependent on news, perhaps now is really not a "good" time to enter.
Recently, the US stock index continues to extend its myth, the popularity of a certain An alpha remains high, gold prices are frequently gaining strength, and the TACO trading by Chuan Jianguo has created a group of legendary traders. I even heard that our Da Mian A has returned to 4000 points, yet we here are still in a state of limbo. When you can look beyond the problems and see the essence, you will understand what it means for the crypto space to have been defined as an ATM by Wall Street institutions over the past two years.
The players and rules here are relatively more savage and violent compared to traditional financial markets. There are very few valuable targets to play with. Once you enter the circle, you will find that almost everyone is a gambler, and everyone hopes to make quick money. Therefore, to harvest the chips of these savvy people, one must inevitably use some methods that exceed public understanding. The slower they torture you, the faster you will surrender.
Some people advised me to pull out my funds and leave the crypto space, but I don't have that thought yet. First, the average price of the chips in hand is still acceptable. Second, the funds are not that much, and diversifying investments is not as good as playing with some targets I can understand. Third, I have faith in BTC and my own understanding of some altcoins, and besides, some money cannot be touched and can be held until retirement.
While writing this text, I checked the on-chain data, and since last night, there has been a liquidation of 800 million USD. The comparison between contract and spot positions has already reached 1/5. The liquidity of funds in the market is gradually being drained, and many mainstream cryptocurrencies have seen negative funding rates. Player sentiment is certainly not going to improve in the short term. Therefore, there is no need to overly expect a rapid rally, nor should we fear that BTC has entered a bear market. These are all "anchors" that have been unconsciously planted in our hearts by the endless flow of various news. After playing for so many years, fear and worry will not help you make money; optimism and caution will.
If you still feel confused at this moment, then try to look at fewer dynamics and news. The market and media are quite magical; after browsing around, I found that most self-media collectively ignored the statement that the Federal Reserve has officially stopped tapering, but instead focused on the possibility of not cutting interest rates in December. Stopping QT means that hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity will enter various markets every month, and under the influence of continuous interest rate cuts and stopping QT, the liquidity in the crypto space will surely gradually increase. So, you don't need to listen to what they say, but rather pay attention to what they are doing.
After 1011, institutional funds continued to flow in quietly, especially after the gold price turned downward. Do you know what the historical relationship between gold and BTC has been? If you do, you shouldn't feel so lost.
Additionally, I also saw a piece of news that the amount of ETH accumulated as strategic reserve company funds has also surpassed that of BTC. BTC is not everything in cryptocurrency; without the applications and extensions of altcoins, our so-called WEB3 industry cannot talk about development and the future, let alone changing the future world. If you can think from this perspective, the rise of altcoins will definitely come; it’s just a matter of whether you have the vision and determination to hold on.
If you look at the bull, you can naturally find 100 reasons to support it; if you look at the bear, you can also easily find the viewpoints you want. The current dynamics should be the big data push of information cocoons. Whatever you like to watch, whatever you agree with, you will see more of. So I also encourage you, when you are confused, to learn to think in reverse, rather than live in anxiety.
The four-year cycle narrative consensus has been shattered, and the operational logic and experiences of the past crypto market have essentially failed in this round. Perhaps this is the result that the main players desire; the more people who are passively liquidated, the more who cut losses, the more who give up struggling, the more who leave in disappointment, the more market makers that run away, the more VC projects that go bankrupt, the more people stop believing in the continuation of a bull market, and the more who scoff at altcoin seasons, perhaps it will quietly arrive.
We are now not far from this darkest moment; what is meant to come will eventually come. Whether you believe it or not, I will still optimistically stick to my own judgment, and I can be responsible for my account funds.
There are actually a lot of things I wanted to say, but I probably won't post publicly too much anymore. First, the platform gives me very little traffic, and no matter how well I write, it basically won't be pushed. Second, because I have more followers, overly subjective thoughts and opinions can easily affect your judgment. After all, the "anchors" in our hearts are different. I can't be responsible for the funds in your account, and too many ineffective followers don't mean much to me.
It is very normal for the market to fluctuate in the short term. If you have the ability, you can try doing short trades or play around with grid trading. If you don't have the ability, just wait quietly for a while. If you want to enter the market, gradually build your position when prices are low. If you want to exit the market, gradually reduce your position when prices are high.
During the small bear phase in a bull market, your best move is to wait. As the old saying goes, deep down you know that when the crypto market wants to rally, no reason is needed. The frantic rush of the market often catches you off guard. As long as the fundamentals of the coins you hold are sound, when you see the intraday volatility continuously narrowing, it should be the time to prepare for an explosion.
I shouldn't be busy after Friday. If I have time, I will hold one or two small live broadcasts for subscribed friends, answering some of everyone's questions and chatting about secrets. See you then ☕.
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